Risk Management

by KnowledgeHut
26th Jun, 2014
Last updated on 25th Feb, 2019

Evolution of Risk Management

Traditionally risks were viewed as a series of single elements. Risk management was seen more as a reactive process and focus was laid on solving only a specific problem. Gradually, professionals and organizations realized the need to have a more complete Risk Management process. Today, Risk Management involves proactively identifying risks, carrying out suitable qualitative and quantitative analyses, and then developing suitable response strategies in order to control the risks.

As the need for a more complete Risk Management process increased, new principles, frameworks and processes were introduced by bodies like ISO, PMBOK and PRINCE2.

The most common steps in Risk Management include

Risk Management Plan
Identification of Risks
Risk Analysis ( Quantitative & Qualitative )
Risk Response Strategies
Control Risks

Importance and Usefulness of Risk Management

Risk Management is one of the drivers of success and competitiveness for an organization from a Project, Program, Portfolio or Operations perspective.

Benefits of Risk Management Framework

Strategic Business Planning
Cost Efficiency
Promotes Continuous Improvement
Fewer shocks and surprises
Quick grasp of new opportunities
Enhancing communication between departments in an organization
Reassuring stakeholders

Risk Management in today’s Organizational world

In today’s world, the complexity of risks has raised stakeholder’s expectations for risk management.Most organizations today have set up their own Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework in order to understand and respond to business uncertainties and opportunities. ERM enhances resilience by improving decision making, strengthening governance and supporting a risk intelligent culture.

Hence, it is important for organizations to continue focusing on their ERM to remain competitive and resilient in a challenging global market.

KnowledgeHut

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KnowledgeHut is an outcome-focused global ed-tech company. We help organizations and professionals unlock excellence through skills development. We offer training solutions under the people and process, data science, full-stack development, cybersecurity, future technologies and digital transformation verticals.
Website : https://www.knowledgehut.com

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Cost Benefit Analysis for Projects: A step by step approach

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Organizations, both for-profit and not-for-profit ones, often contemplate the need to take up new initiatives, develop new policies, bring about changes or create new capabilities to improve their current state of business-as-usual and create new benefits for the organization and stakeholders. All such new initiatives will be taken up as new projects by the organizations. These projects are expected to create new business value or in some cases social value. Every new project or initiative will require fresh investments of efforts and money to be made. Organizations will need to make such decisions prudently by creating a clear justification. Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA): What is it? Understanding Cost Benefit Analysis Conducting a cost benefit analysis (CBA) or a Benefit-Cost analysis (as may be referred alternatively) is one of the most fundamental methods used to compare the financial cost to be incurred for such new initiatives and benefits to be generated from them. 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But these calculations are too simplistic, and do not account for the time-value of money based on interest rates, inflation. Analyzing using discounted method In the above example, the costs are incurred in the present time, while the benefits will be received in future. These values of money are in different timelines and hence their values cannot be compared directly as it is. We need to bring down all the future values of benefits and costs to their corresponding present values and then we can do a comparison of present values of benefits and costs. The below formula can be used to understand the relationship between present value (PV) and future value (FV) of money. PV = FV/(1+r)n(where r stands for rate of discount of money, n stands for time period) In the below example, the cost and benefits value mentioned are in specific period in time. We need to bring all costs as well as all benefits to their corresponding present values (PV) using the above equation and assuming an interest (discount) rate of 10% for ease of calculation. Yr. 0Yr. 1Yr. 2Yr. 3Yr. 4Yr. 5Yr. 6Discount rate at 10% (0.1)Cost (FV)100000000000Benefits(FV)250002500025000250002500025000Cost (PV100000000000Benefits(PV)0227272066118782170751552714112Example of CBA using Discounted MethodPV of all costs = 100000 (as it is happening in year 0 only) PV of all revenue = 25000/(1.1) + 25000/(1.1)2 + 25000/(1.1)3+ 25000/(1.1)4+ 25000/(1.1)5 + 25000/(1.1)6 = 22727+20661+18782+17075+15527+14112 =108884 Net Present Value (NPV) = Sum of PV of all benefits – Sum of PV of all costs = 108884 – 100000 = 8884 (> 0) Hence this project investment will lead to a profit after discounting the effect of interest and any other inflationary factors which are taken as 10%) If NPV is > 0, then the project investments will lead to profit. NPV is one of the most practical methods for doing cost benefit analysis by considering the time-value of money. IRR (Internal Rate of Return) – IRR is the rate of discount at which the sums of PV of all benefits equals sums of PV of all costs. Or in other words IRR is the rate of discount at which NPV equals 0. Calculating IRR is a more complex affair. In simpler term IRR denotes expected rate of return from the investments. According to a general guideline, higher the IRR from an investment, the better the opportunity. How to establish a framework As we discussed above, there are various methods for undertaking cost benefit analysis. Different financial parameters such as Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), ROI, Payback Period, NPV, IRR etc. need to be calculated for arriving at decisions and making necessary recommendations on whether a specific project should be taken up or not. Every organization is unique in their capabilities to invest and take risk. Organizations can define their specific guidelines or framework for project selection taking into account the above financial parameters, the risks involved in doing the project and most importantly specific nature of the investors. A framework for project selection will include all above factors. Below are some basic guidelines which are used for decision making during cost benefit analysis (CBA) NPV should more than 0. Higher the NPV, the better is the project. BCR should be more than 1. Higher the BCR, the benefits outweigh the cost more. ROI should be high. Higher the ROI, the better is the investment opportunity. IRR should be high. Higher the IRR, the better is the opportunity. Payback period should be lower. Lower the payback period, the better seems the opportunity. Challenges and considerations while doing CBA How accurate is Cost Benefit Analysis? Cost benefit analysis can be reasonably accurate if these are done by technical and financial experts. Experience and availability of real data about costs and benefits of similar projects from past can greatly enhance the accuracy of cost benefit analysis. Are there limitations to Cost Benefit Analysis? Since cost benefit analysis requires estimating costs and quantifying future benefits accurately, it requires solid maturity in terms of knowledge and availability of past data. In the absence of experience and data availability, CBA may fall short in its accuracy. The risks and uncertainties in Cost Benefit Analysis While doing cost and benefit analysis, it will be important to understand risks and uncertainties involved in doing the project. It will also be equally important to understand the uncertainties involved in realizing the benefits once the project is done. Cost benefits analysis need to consider the implications of uncertainties to make it realistic. It may require doing statistical simulations and modeling as well. Cost Benefit Analysis in the real world We saw that CBA became a formal and mandatory practice as early as 1930s in the US government departments, for numerically evaluating if the benefits will outweigh (and by how much) the costs of doing the project. Organizations have become highly knowledgeable, experienced, and matured. Availability of past data coupled with ability to process the data using modern mathematical and statistical techniques and computerized tools exists in abundance within organizations. In today’s world the need for doing CBA has become necessary. Businesses and governments are held more and more responsible and accountable to their citizens and investors for justifying their investment decisions. They can do this only by conducting a thorough cost benefit analysis.

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