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Event chain methodology is a network analysis technique that is focused on identifying and managing events and relationship between them (event chains) that affect project schedules. It is the next advance beyond critical path method and critical chain project management. Event Chain Methodology is an extension of traditional Monte Carlo Simulations and project risk analysis with Risk Driver.
Event chain methodology helps to mitigate the effect of motivational and cognitive biases in estimating and scheduling. It improves accuracy of risk assessment and helps to generate more realistic risk adjusted project schedules.
It is a more of a statistical method. Event Chain Methodology is based on six main principles
Moment of Risk and State of Activity - In a real life project process, a task or an activity is not always a continuous procedure. Neither is it a uniform one. A factor that influences tasks is external events, which in turn transform tasks or activities from one position to another.
During the course of a project, the time or moment when an event occurs is a very important component of the event. This time or moment is predominantly probabilistic and can be characterized using statistical distribution. More often than not, these external events have a negative impact on the project.
Event Chains - An external event can lead to another event and so forth. This creates event chains. Event chains have a significant impact of the course of a project.
For example, any changed requirements to the materials needed for the project can cause the activity to be delayed. The project manager then allocates resources from another activity. This leads to missed deadlines and eventually leads to the failure of the project.
Monte Carlo Simulations - On the clear definition of events and event chains, Monte Carlo Analysis is utilized in order to quantify the collective consequences of the events.
The probability of the risks occurring and the effects they may have are used as input data for the Monte Carlo Analysis. This analysis gives a probability curve of the project schedule.
Critical Event Chains - Critical events or critical chains of events are those with the potential to impinge on a project the most. By identifying such events at the very beginning, it is possible to lessen the negative effect they have on projects.
These types of events can be detected by examining the connections between the primary project parameters.
Performance Tracking With Event Chains - It is important for a manager to track the progress of an activity live. This ensures that updated information is used for the Monte Carlo Analysis.
Hence during the duration of the project, the probability of events can be calculated more accurately using actual data.
Event Chain Diagrams - Event Chain Diagrams depict the relationships between external events and tasks and how the two affect each other. These chains are represented by arrows that are associated with a particular activity or time interval on a Gantt chart.
Each event and event chain is represented by a different colour. Global events affect all the tasks in a project while local events affect just one task or activity in a project. Event Chain Diagrams allow for the simple modelling and analysis of risks.
The use of Event Chain Methodology in project management produces some interesting phenomenon:
Event chain methodology is an uncertainty modelling and schedule network analysis technique that is focused on identifying and managing events and event chains that affect project schedules. It helps to:
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